Realizing the energy transition
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Why fans of nuclear are a problem today

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Jérôme Guillet
Jérôme Guillet

30 years in energy finance and listed in top 100 wind power people

Jérôme Guillet - 25 August 2024, Parisnot because they will succeed, but because they will fail

Nuclear energy has been great. In many places, it has produced relatively cheap electricity and (although we did not care about that when it was built) it is largely carbon-free.

It still works, but it is simply no longer competitive against available alternatives, and it is going to be increasingly difficult to integrate in a system that is inexorably dominated by solar energy during the day and other renewables. (see for instance this recent academic study). In any case, it is not financeable, and given the large amounts required for each plant, they will struggle to get built, even with large-scale state support.

If a few nuclear plants could easily be built on budget and on time in a given system, it would not be an issue, but the problem is that (i) a lot of the energy of its proponents is directed at maligning renewable energy, presenting it as unserious and insufficient (arguments of the “you can’t do vital surgery if there’s no wind” type which ignore how grids work), and (ii) more importantly, nuclear swallows an incredible volume of political capital that could better be used for other purposes, like energy efficiency, upgrading the grid or reducing fossil fuel use outside the electricity sector.

Politicians like these very large, multi-billion-euro projects that seem to solve an issue in one go, and can be forcefully and visibly decided by a handful of large-ego persons like themselves. They don’t understand (or hate) the very decentralized and uncontrollable nature of renewable energy systems, that require complex rules and don’t give them the same publicisable impact on things. Nuclear provides a concentrated nexus of jobs, TV opportunities, and VIP meetings with big stakes. So they are easily convinced by proponents that this is what is needed.

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